Estimation methods for actual heating load index

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the overall suspension situations of heating stations under the jurisdiction of Taiyuan Thermal Power Group Co., Ltd. during the 2022-2023 heating season and examines the main influencing factors of the suspension rate. By simplifying the types of heating stations and users, it explores the relationship between the suspension rate and the actual heating load index using actural operational data, revealing a generally positive correlation between them. Furthermore, two estimation methods for the actual heating load index are proposed, one considering heat transfer between households and the other based on the suspension rate. However, slight differences exist in these estimation methods when the types of heating stations or users vary. The accuracy of these estimation methods is verified by estimating the actual heating load index for individual heating station and the heat network, providing a basis for determining the actual heating load index of the heat network during its operational period.